Introduction
Georgetown University researchers expect 15 million more good jobs will be created for workers with bachelor's diplomas in the decade following 2021.
Dive Brief
The number of good jobs will grow substantially by 2031, and the majority of them will require at least a four-year degree, according to Georgetown University's Center on Education and the Workforce. Researchers expect the number of good jobs for workers with a bachelor's degree or higher to increase by over 15 million from 2021 to 2031. The report defines good jobs as those offering a minimum of $43,000 per year and a median annual salary of $74,000 in 2022 dollars for workers aged 25 to 44. Meanwhile, the center predicted that good jobs available to workers with a high school diploma or less will decline by almost 600,000 during that period.
Dive Insight
The report outlines three pathways to good jobs — one for workers with a high school diploma or less, one for those who completed some college credit, a short-term program or an associate degree, and one for graduates of bachelor's programs and beyond. Researchers offer an optimistic outlook for the U.S. workforce, estimating that 62% of positions in 2031 will meet the criteria to be considered good jobs, an increase of 3 percentage points from 2021.
A majority of the future's good jobs lie at the end of the bachelor's degree pathway. "Bachelor's and graduate degrees will remain dominant and even grow into the future," according to Artem Gulish, senior federal policy advisor at Georgetown CEW. In 2031, two-thirds of all good jobs will require a four-year degree or more, compared with 59% in 2021. About 8 out of 10 jobs requiring at least a bachelor's degree will qualify as good.
Half of the jobs available to workers with more education than a high school diploma but less than a bachelor's degree will meet earning thresholds for good jobs. That will be true for just over a third of positions for those with a high school diploma or less. The report offers colleges a way to underscore their value at a time when many U.S. adults report having little confidence in higher education.
Educational institutions need to prioritize affordability. "Educational institutions need to be thinking about costs — particularly at the four-year level — to make it more viable for more students," according to Catherine Morris, senior editor at Georgetown CEW.
Workers on the middle-skills pathway can expect new employment opportunities as skills-based hiring gains popularity. The tight labor market has pushed employers to prioritize candidates' skills over certifications and remove four-year degree requirements from some job postings. While good jobs will still favor workers with at least a bachelor's degree, 19% of the good jobs in 2031 will be available through the middle-skills pathway.
Sectors like healthcare will see especially robust growth as the population ages. Other in-demand fields for middle-skills workers will include construction, maintenance and protective services. Technological advances like artificial intelligence are expected to disrupt the labor market, but the report predicts the effects will be more positive in the long term.
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